Predicting Hits: Who Has The Best Track Record?

Last year, many media critics in the mass media predicted that
Commander-in-Chief would be a hit. It wasn't.

Media critics slammed "Deal or No Deal." It turned out to be a hit and
got picked up for a second season.

So of the various columnists and commentators out there, who has had the
best track record in predicting which new shows would succeed and which
would not?

Did anyone in the mass media correctly predict the success of "Deal or
No Deal," the failure of "Commander-in-Chief," the success of "Jericho"
and the failure of "Friday Night Lights"?

Brady E...

It's a good question. I'm not really sure. I tend to think most almost
always over-estimate the drawing power of shows based on politics,
media, etc. and under-estimate game-shows, reality and gooey
sentimentality. They base their guesses of success and failure their
own likes and dislikes, which is a mistake.

Can't really blame them for thinking "Commander-in-Chief" would succeed
though, since it is hard to know when a show is going to implode all
over itself with network help.

"Friday Night Lights" seemed like a long shot to me all the way. Double
whammy of being a series about sports and based on a movie (alright I
guess it was a book based on a real story first), but you get the
picture. Lethal combination.