Balance of probability?

Back in October & November last year I was looking for assistance with
identifying the maiden name of my paternal gggggg-grandmother
Elizabeth. In short a George Daubeney of Winterborne Steepleton,
Dorset, had two daughters, Jane & Elizabeth. Two sources indicate that
Jane married William Plowman and two indicate that she married Thomas
St Lo. I have listed the various "facts" I have found at;

I feel that the balance of probability is that Jane married Thomas St
Lo. However, I may not be as unbiased as I should.

lovegrove...

Even if the balance of probabilities did suggest one way over the other, I
think you do need to ask yourself whether that is a high enough standard of
proof. On average, one could expect 25% of decisions made "on the balance of
probabilities" to be wrong.

Would not a better standard be "beyond all reasonable doubt"?

Lesley Robertson...

I'd agree.
One obvious question, who died in what order? Could Jane and Thomas have
died young(ish) and their widows married each other?
Lesley Robertson

Roger Lovegrove

Please do visit the LOVEGROVE Information Centre on

I would be grateful, therefore, if the learned members here would have
a look and make constructive observations or criticisms.

Yours aye