Re: Agnes Dunbar again

Saturday, 6 March, 2006

Dear Tim,

The "Turnberry Band" of 1286 to which you refer was an
agreement between several Scots lords, Richard de Burgh, earl
of Ulster and Sir Thomas de Clare, which had a more mundane
basis than that attributed by subsequent nationalist (pro-Bruce)
writers. Among the parties to the agreement of 20 September
1286 were Patrick, Earl of Dunbar, and his sons Patrick, John,
and Alexander [1]. On that date, we know that Earl Patrick was
aged 72 or more [2], and his eldest son Patrick was aged 43 or
more [3]. We would reasonably place his third (known) son
Alexander as being most likely aged say 30 and 40 on that
date: this would yield a range for his birthdate between say
1246 and 1256.

George Dunbar, Earl of March (d. 1420) has been assigned
a birth date of 1340, although I have seen "circa 1336" as
well [4]. Following on the Scots Peerage version of the Dunbar
pedigree [SP III:257-273], using the earliest birthdate for
Alexander Dunbar above (say 1246) would yield 90 years (1336
less 1246), an average generational range of 45 years per
generation from Alexander as alleged grandfather to George as
alleged grandson. The later theoretical date of 1256 would
yield 80 years (1336 less 1256), an average generational range
of 40 years per generation from this Alexander to George Dunbar.
If these ranges of 90 to 80 years involved 3 generations from
Alexander to George Dunbar, the average generational ranges
would be between say 30 years (90/3) and 26.7 years (80/3),
slightly on the 'high side' of what we would expect.

Even the 'long-living' senior line of the Earls of Dunbar
display, over different 2-generation sequences, average
generational ranges of 30.5 years [5], 28.5 years [6] and say
31 years [7]. These are sequences from eldest known son to
eldest known son, which are among the shorter sequences we
would expect to see in any given family: so to, from
Alexander Dunbar to his grandson Earl George (fl.
1336/1340 - 1420), we have a sequence of eldest known son to
eldest known son, so we might reasonably expect a shorter
sequence, not a longer one. Something appears to be amiss.

The simplest explanation, given the evident chronological
unlikelihood shown above: there was an Alexander Dunbar,
younger son of Earl Patrick (fl. 1242-1308) and his wife
Marjory Comyn, who was the 'Lord Alexander, son of the Earl
of Dunbar' named in his son Sir Patrick Dunbar's charter [8],
as shown in my earlier reconstruction of the Dunbar pedigree.
The attribution of George Dunbar's grandfather as being
identical to the Alexander of the 1286 concord at Turnberry
is an unfortunate conflation of 'the name's the same' variety.

Tim Powys-Lybbe...

Thanks for that explanation of why SP is almost certainly wrong and CP
almost certainly right. Perhaps a minor addition is needed to CP to
account for the placing?

Cheers,

John *

NOTES

[1] 'Patricius comes de Dunbar', together with his sons, entered
into a bond with Robert de Brus, Walter, earl of Menteith and
others at Turnberry, 20 Sept 1286 'to adhere to the party of
Richard de Burgh, earl of Ulster and Sir Thomas de Clare '
[Red Book of Menteith II: 219-220, citing Historical Docs.
Scotland, i:22 ].

[2] Patrick (d. 24 Aug 1289) was aged 35 upon succeeding to the
Earldom [SP III:257] and to father's lands in England, 13 Dec
1248 [CP IV:565].

[3] Patrick (d. 10 Oct 1308) was aged 47 at his father's IPM in
1289 [CP IV:506].

The ID number for George Dunbar is I00164961.

[5] From Patrick (fl. 1152-1232) to his grandson Patrick (fl.
1213-1289), we have a span of say 61 years, an average of
30.5 years per generation.

[6] From Patrick (fl. ca. 1185-1248) to his grandson Patrick
(fl. 1242-1308), a span of say 57 years, an average of
28.5 years per generation.

[7] From Patrick (fl. 1213-1289) to his grandson Patrick
(fl. ca. 1275, or ca. 1285, to - allegedly - 1368), a
span of between 62 and 72 years, an average of between
31 and 36 years per generation. In my next message (in
another thread), I will show why the birthdate of ca. 1285,
and generational range of say 36 years, are both evidently
in error.

[8] ' Charter of Patrick de Dunbar, son of Lord Alexander, son
of the Earl of Dunbar, granting and quitclaiming in the
Prior's court at Ayton, on Wednesday after the Feast of St
John the Baptist, to Adam de Pontefract, Prior, and the
Convent of Coldingham, ½ carrucate of land in Swinewood,
which he bought from Thomas, son of Ralph.
Witnesses: Lord Robert de Lawedre, Justiciar of Lothian,
Robert de Lawedre his son, sheriff, Henry de Prendergest,
Hugh Giffard, John de Rayngton, Henry de Swinton, Gilbert
de Lumsden, Roger de Lumsden, John de Paxton , and many
others
Given at Lower Ayton Wednesday after the Feast of St John
Baptist [26 June or 4 September] 1331 ' [Durham University
Library Archives & Special Collections: Misc. Charter 1038
{Seal: G&B 2811. Attached by parchment strip through foot of
document. Printed: Raine ND App. CCCCXXXII}]

* John P. Ravilious