New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth

New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth

California Poppy...

This is really quite alarming!

Space weather forecasters revised their predictions for storminess after a
major flare erupted on the Sun overnight threatening damage to communication
systems and power grids while offering up the wonder of Northern Lights.

"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin
probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA
Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.

The storm is expected to generate aurora or Northern Lights, as far south as
the northern United States Thursday night. Astronauts aboard the
International Space Station are not expected to be put at additional risk,
Kunches said.

Radio communications, satellites and power grids could face potential
interruptions or damage, however.

Solar flares send radiation to Earth within minutes. Some are also
accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CME), clouds of charged particles
that arrive in a day or two. This flare unleashed a strong CME that's aimed
squarely at Earth.

"It's got all the right stuff," Kunches said.

However, one crucial component to the storm is unknown: its magnetic
orientation. If it lines up a certain way with Earth's magnetic field, then
the storm essentially pours into our upper atmosphere. If the alignment is
otherwise, the storm can pass by the planet with fewer consequences.

Kunches and his team are advising satellite operators and power grid
managers to keep an eye on their systems. In the past, CMEs have knocked out
satellites and tripped terrestrial power grids. Engineers have learned to
limit switching at electricity transfer stations, and satellite operators
sometimes reduce operations or make back-up plans in case a craft is
damaged.

Another aspect of a CME involves protons that get pushed along by the shock
wave. Sometimes these protons break through Earth's protective magnetic
field and flood the outer reaches of the atmosphere-where the space station
orbits-with radiation. The science of it all is a gray area, Kunches said.
But the best guess now is that there will only be a slight increase in
proton activity. That's good news for the astronauts.

"When the shock goes by, we don't expect significant radiation issues," he
said.

The astronauts were ordered to a protective area of the space station as a
precaution last night.

Now that sunspot number 930 has flared so significantly-after several days
of being quiet-the forecast calls for a "reasonble chance" of more major
flares in coming days, Kunches said.